When policymakers speak of reform, the expectation is usually progress.
Better systems. Better outcomes. Better opportunities.
Yet, during the recent press conference organized by the Nigerian Publishers Association (NPA) at the Lagos Airport Hotel, industry stakeholders argued that not every reform automatically leads to improvement. Sometimes, they warned, a well-intentioned policy can trigger unintended consequences that ripple across an entire sector.
At the heart of the debate is the Federal Ministry of Education’s proposed Textbook Ranking Policy. This policy, publishers believe, could fundamentally alter the structure of educational publishing in Nigeria.
While government officials view the proposal as a means of improving textbook quality, the NPA insists that the policy raises serious concerns about fairness, competition, employment, and the timing of its implementation.
Their message was both urgent and sobering: educational reform should not come at the expense of an entire industry.
Creating Champions—or Creating Casualties?
One of the strongest concerns raised by the Association is that a ranking system inevitably creates winners and losers.
In theory, ranking appears straightforward. A panel evaluates books, identifies the highest-performing titles, and recommends them for use.
But the NPA argues that the reality is far more complicated.
Once textbooks are ranked and a small number emerge at the top, market dynamics change dramatically.
Schools naturally gravitate toward the highest-ranked books.
Parents purchase what schools recommend.
State governments focus procurement on the selected titles.
Over time, the market begins to concentrate around a handful of publishers.
The Association posed a critical question during the press conference:
What happens to the hundreds of publishers that do not make the list?
Nigeria’s educational publishing industry is not a small ecosystem dominated by a few large companies. It is a vibrant and competitive sector comprising over 200 active publishing firms, many of which have spent decades investing in authors, editors, curriculum specialists, illustrators, printing infrastructure, warehousing, and nationwide distribution networks.
These investments were made with the expectation of competing on a level playing field.
The proposed ranking system, according to the NPA, risks replacing that competitive marketplace with a structure where only a handful of publishers enjoy visibility and market access.
The result could be a publishing landscape where success is determined not by sustained competition, innovation, or market performance, but by placement on a ranking list.
The Fear of Subjectivity
Beyond the economic implications lies another concern: transparency.
The Association warned that ranking systems often introduce elements of subjectivity that are difficult to eliminate.
Even with the best intentions, questions inevitably arise.
What criteria determine the rankings?
How much weight is assigned to each criterion?
Who makes the final decisions?
Can unconscious bias influence outcomes?
Will publishers have access to detailed evaluation reports?
Can decisions be challenged or reviewed?
These questions become even more significant when the ranking outcome determines access to a market worth billions of naira.
The NPA fears that once rankings become the dominant determinant of textbook selection, publishers may begin competing not only on quality but also on their ability to navigate a process that many could perceive as opaque.
The Association maintains that Nigeria’s existing evaluation system already determines whether a textbook meets the required standards. In their view, introducing rankings goes beyond quality assurance and enters the territory of market control.
For them, the issue is not merely educational.
It is economic.
It is structural.
And it is potentially transformative in ways that policymakers may not fully anticipate.
The Employment Question Nobody Is Asking
Perhaps the most emotional moment during the press conference came when discussions shifted from books to people.
Behind every textbook sits an entire value chain of professionals.
Authors spend months researching and writing.
Editors refine manuscripts.
Illustrators bring concepts to life.
Curriculum experts ensure compliance with national standards.
Printers produce physical copies.
Warehouse operators manage inventory.
Sales representatives distribute materials nationwide.
Booksellers connect learning resources to schools and families.
Thousands of Nigerians depend directly or indirectly on educational publishing for their livelihoods.
The NPA warned that if textbook demand becomes concentrated among only seven or ten highly ranked publishers, many other firms may struggle to survive.
Reduced sales could lead to downsizing.
Downsizing could lead to job losses.
Job losses could affect families, communities, and local economies.
In an economy already grappling with unemployment challenges, publishers questioned whether policymakers had adequately assessed these potential consequences.
Their concern is simple: educational reform should not create economic casualties.
A policy designed to improve learning outcomes should also safeguard the ecosystem that produces learning materials in the first place.
An Industry Already Under Pressure
While concerns about rankings dominated much of the discussion, another issue emerged as equally significant.
Timing.
The NPA argued that the proposed policy arrives at a particularly difficult moment for educational publishers.
Nigeria’s new curriculum was introduced only a few months ago, and publishers are still working tirelessly to align their materials with the revised educational framework.
Curriculum reform on this scale is not a simple exercise.
Every subject requires detailed analysis.
Existing textbooks must be reviewed.
New learning objectives must be incorporated.
Content gaps must be identified.
Manuscripts must be rewritten.
Illustrations must be updated.
Assessments must be redesigned.
The process requires enormous financial investment and extensive collaboration between publishers, curriculum specialists, educators, and subject-matter experts.
Yet according to the Association, many publishers are still navigating this transition.
Building the Plane While Flying It
During the press conference, publishers painted a vivid picture of the challenges they currently face.
Although implementation of the new curriculum has already begun, curriculum guidelines are still being released by the Nigerian Educational Research and Development Council (NERDC).
Even more concerning, curricula for some subjects have yet to be made available, making it impossible for publishers to begin full-scale development of relevant instructional materials.
The consequence is a situation many publishers describe as “building the plane while flying it.”
They are expected to produce curriculum-aligned textbooks while critical elements of the curriculum framework are still emerging.
This creates uncertainty.
It delays production timelines.
It increases development costs.
And it places significant pressure on publishers attempting to meet educational demands.
Against this backdrop, the NPA believes introducing an entirely new ranking policy adds another layer of complexity to an already challenging transition period.
The Missing Transition Window
One recurring theme throughout the engagement was the absence of a sufficient transition period.
Major educational reforms typically involve phased implementation, stakeholder consultations, pilot testing, feedback mechanisms, and adjustment periods.
Such transitions allow institutions, publishers, schools, and regulators to adapt gradually to new requirements.
The Association argued that this process has not adequately occurred.
Publishers are still adapting to curriculum reforms introduced barely seven months ago.
Many are investing heavily in new content development.
Others are waiting for outstanding curriculum documents before proceeding.
For these stakeholders, introducing a ranking system at this stage feels less like a coordinated reform process and more like moving the goalposts in the middle of the game.
A Call for Reflection
The Nigerian Publishers Association insists that its objections should not be interpreted as resistance to progress.
Rather, they view their position as a call for deeper reflection.
Educational policy, they argue, must balance quality improvement with economic sustainability, transparency, and practical implementation realities.
As discussions around the Textbook Ranking Policy continue, the questions raised by publishers remain difficult to ignore.
Can a ranking system truly improve educational outcomes without narrowing competition?
Can educational quality be enhanced without jeopardizing thousands of jobs?
Can a major policy shift succeed while publishers are still adapting to a new curriculum?
And perhaps most importantly, can reform achieve its objectives if those responsible for producing educational content feel excluded from the conversation?
The answers to these questions may ultimately determine whether the proposed policy becomes a catalyst for progress, or a source of disruption for one of Nigeria’s most important knowledge industries.
For now, the debate continues, and the future of educational publishing hangs in the balance.
